> Pretty expensive is an understatement. [...] If you could it would be multiple hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Obviously, I quantified both the operating expense and the capital expense in my post. What I find curious is that you're quoting me talking about the operating expenditure, and changing the topic to be about the buy-in like these are interchangeable things. You don't think that this is a crucial and important distinction?

> You couldn’t buy one of these if you wanted to right now.

You could have spent all of 5 seconds of searching rather than just assuming[1]. You're not buying an Nvidia Superpod™.

> You can’t even run one unquantized multi-trillion parameter (>=2T) model on 8 x MI355x with enough context for concurrent users.

That's certainly fair a point. Although in the English language, especially in legal contexts, the multi- prefix is used inclusively for fractional values. That is it's strictly >1, not >=2. IE an 18 month contract is a multi-year contract, or a $1.6 million dollar asset is a "multi-million" dollar asset. But this is uninteresting semantics.

You are right, but it also doesn't matter. The gap is just that big. You can run 1 single user of Kimi K3 and still not even come remotely close to the $70k or so that a single Opus 4.8 user can burn over the course of a month on left on max. An honestly lowballed amount I know from anecdote. The per-token cost is just really expensive.

> Your math is way off across this post.

You made one technical point above, one that doesn't ever arrive at a relevant rebuttal to the substance of my post. But please, I'd love to hear you elaborate, especially because I didn't actually give much math at all.

If you want math though, here's the math. Let's say you are paying a ridiculous amount of money for electricity, a price nobody in the US pays -- $2 per kilowatt hour. That's about 5x the average rate in California, 4x as in Hawai'i. 17kW @ $2/kWh * ~8766 hours in a year puts that cluster's electrical costs at just shy of ~$298k annually assuming it takes no breaks. Let's make matters worse and round that up to $300k. It's also assuming you didn't invest in a solar hookup for your building, which I don't know why you haven't at this point. 12 months of Claude burning $70k a month is $840k. For a buy in of, you know what, let's call it $500k. Why not? It still doesn't matter. The operating cost is so much lower it's paid for itself plus an additional $40k in the first year. Even at a ridiculous penalty in electricity that nobody pays, even overinflating the amount of money you'd pay for the cluster and the infrastructure to get it set up, it's not even remotely close for a single user where the gap is smaller (IE, you're not wasting "a million dollars" in a year by maxing out the $200k scaling limit every month)

You can of course trot out the point that oh, in 12 months this setup will be extremely outdated! It doesn't matter. If the work it was doing today was useful, it will be useful next year too. And with the rapidly encroaching diminishing returns from parameter scaling, you're probably going to be just fine for a while. Maybe grab a quantized version of a newer Chinese model at the end, before grabbing a newer generation of AMD node. Those MI400s are looking pretty sweet after all.

> If replacing an Anthropic subscription for a whole company was as easy as buying a box for the office and then breaking even in 2 months

If you're locked in, then you're locked in. But don't pretend like you're saving money. You're not.

> it wouldn’t be some little secret that we only discover in a comment online.

Why does this have you so nasty and defensive? It's not a "little secret" that running your own infrastructure is cheaper. Of course it is. You know what else is cheaper? Owning your own office building out in the sticks, rather than leasing part of one in the city. Not everybody can make that work, there are no free lunches after all.

History repeats, these same exact lines were rolled out ad nauseum during the cloud craze. Datacenters are businesses, not charities. Frontier companies rent quite a fair amount of their infrastructure. Even if they resold that compute below cost (they don't), there's a pretty steep cliff before the economics start to look attractive.

[1] - https://www.avadirect.com/GIGABYTE-G893-ZX1-AAX4-Dual-AMD-EP...

My local model setup on an M4 Pro Mac Mini